THR’s awards expert offers his latest assessment of the race.

These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg’s personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Best Picture

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FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land (Lionsgate)
Moonlight (A24)
Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
Fences (Paramount)
Silence (Paramount)
Hidden Figures (Fox)
Jackie (Fox Searchlight)
Hell or High Water (CBS Films) [pictured above]
Sully (Warner Bros.)

MAJOR THREATS

Loving (Focus Features)
The Birth of a Nation (Fox Searchlight)
The Jungle Book (Disney)
Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
20th Century Women (A24)
Rules Don’t Apply (Fox)
Captain Fantastic (Bleecker Street)

POSSIBILITIES

Live By Night (Warner Bros.)
Allied (Paramount)
Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount)
Eye in the Sky (Bleecker Street)
Snowden (Open Road)
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Sony)

LONG SHOTS

Zootopia (Disney)
Arrival (Paramount)
Toni Erdmann (Sony Classics)
I, Daniel Blake (IFC Films)
The Lobster (A24)
Patriots Day (Lionsgate)

Best Director

FRONTRUNNERS

Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Garth Davis (Lion)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

MAJOR THREATS

Martin Scorsese (Silence)
Jon Favreau (The Jungle Book)
Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake) [pictured above]
Jeff Nichols (Loving)
Clint Eastwood (Sully)
Warren Beatty (Rules Don’t Apply)

POSSIBILITIES

Ang Lee (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk)
Mike Mills (20th Century Women)
Pablo Larrain (Jackie)
Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ted Melfi (Hidden Figures)

LONG SHOTS

Oliver Stone (Snowden)
Robert Zemeckis (Allied)
Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation)
David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
Matt Ross (Captain Fantastic)

Best Actor

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FRONTRUNNERS

Denzel Washington (Fences)
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Tom Hanks (Sully)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)

MAJOR THREATS

Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Joel Edgerton (Loving) [pictured above]
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Snowden)
Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
Andrew Garfield (Silence)
Robert De Niro (The Comedian) NEW

POSSIBILITIES

Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation)
Miles Teller (Bleed for This)
Michael Keaton (The Founder)
Matthew McConaughey (Gold)
Brad Pitt (Allied)

LONG SHOTS

Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day)
Joe Alwyn (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk)
Adam Driver (Paterson)
Alden Ehrenreich (Rules Don’t Apply)
Chris Pine (Hell or High Water)
Dave Johns (I, Daniel Blake)

Best Actress

FRONTRUNNERS

Emma Stone (La La Land)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
Viola Davis (Fences)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

MAJOR THREATS

Ruth Negga (Loving)
Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Marion Cotillard (Allied) [pictured above]

POSSIBILITIES

Kate Beckinsale (Love & Friendship)
Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
Rachel Weisz (Denial)
Amy Adams (Arrival)

LONG SHOTS

Sarah Paulson (Blue Jay) NEW
Rebecca Hall (Christine)
Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)
Alicia Vikander (The Light Between Oceans)

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