THR’s awards expert weighs in as the 41st Toronto International Film Festival begins.

these projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg’s personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Best Picture
FRONTRUNNERS

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La La Land (Lionsgate)
Fences (Paramount)
Hidden Figures (Fox)
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Sony)
Moonlight (A24)
Snowden (Open Road)
Silence (Paramount)
Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions) (Pictured Above)
Sully (Warner Bros.)
Hell or High Water (CBS Films)

MAJOR THREATS

Loving (Focus Features)
The Birth of a Nation (Fox Searchlight)
Live By Night (Warner Bros.)
Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
20th Century Women (A24)
Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount)
Captain Fantastic (Bleecker Street)
Toni Erdmann (Sony Classics)

POSSIBILITIES

Bleed for This (Open Road)
Collateral Beauty (Warner Bros./New Line)
Allied (Paramount)
American Pastoral (Lionsgate)
Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
Eye in the Sky (Bleecker Street)
Rules Don’t Apply (Fox)
Nocturnal Animals (Focus Features)

LONG SHOTS

Zootopia (Disney)
Passengers (Sony)
Deepwater Horizon (Summit)
A Monster Calls (Focus Features)
Arrival (Paramount)
The Jungle Book (Disney)
The Girl on the Train (Universal)
I, Daniel Blake (IFC Films)
The Lobster (A24)
Queen of Katwe (Disney)
The Founder (The Weinstein Co.)

STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTION

Jackie

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